Agricultural forecasts for the HIE area - SAC report 2003

A report commissioned by Highlands and Islands Enterprise - published April 2003

The aims of the study were to:

• map out the current trends in HIE area agriculture
• identify key drivers in terms of prices, policies and the wider business environment
• map out scenarios for the future of HIE area agriculture
• identify what these mean for each sub-region of the HIE area
• recommend broad actions to cope with the challenges identified.

The methodology used involved three phases. In the first phase a substantial overview of the trends in HIE area agriculture was prepared for a ten year period. This included a review of income and output. These were compared to changes in key product prices, policy changes and business environment changes over that period. Comparisons were made with the rest of Scotland.

A couple of provocative scenarios were presented to stimulate debate in the second phase. The second phase of the study took the form of an experts workshop consisting of farmers, traders, advisers, NFUS, crofters' representatives and LEC staff. The workshop tested the conclusions from phase 1, identified future drivers of change, identified the key drivers and from these developed a range of scenarios for the next ten years.

Using the workshop output, the third phase of the study involved developing more detailed forecasts of the impact of the two most likely scenarios. Profiles for each Highland sub-region were developed and described. Action areas were recommended to assist the losers in the transition and to help opportunities presented by change to be grasped.

The full report is available in Acrobat pdf format.