Mark Hope, Special Adviser, Shell Exploration and Production and Chairman, Woodend Arts Association

Energy and Sustainability on Planet Earth

Mark started his presentation by explaining he was now employed part time by Shell and increasingly involved in local community and arts activity. He introduced the audience to his view of energy use and sustainability. He began with a review of the world’s current energy use and sources. It is clear that the modern economy is built upon ‘cheap’ energy; that is energy use without accounting for its environmental impact and consequent economic costs.

Mark spent some time discussing his thoughts on future energy use. He suggested that:

• use of fossil fuels in the main user economies, North America and Europe was expected to be static,
• developing economies will consume rapidly growing amounts of oil over the next 30-40 years and gas and coal over the next 60 years,
• nuclear and hydro energy sources will account for approximately 6-7% each of world energy use,
• renewable energy, specifically wind, photovoltaic and bio-fuel energy sources are the key areas for growth increasing at 10-15% per annum. 

The conventional view was that the world’s economy will still be at least 50% dependent upon fossil fuels in 2050. Renewable energy may offer a solution if the use of current energy systems is rethought but we needed to address energy efficiency urgently and aggressively in order to reduce the quantity of energy that we need. New technologies such as carbon sequestration could limit CO2 damage but they are expensive to implement. Nuclear energy might also be part of the solution, but it was expensive and had major environmental impacts in terms of both uranium production and waste disposal

In conclusion, Mark suggested the future could be very different from the conventional outlook that he had described, but that would require a new mindset.  Future challenges would include:

• we needed to believe that radical changes in western lifestyles are both possible and desirable, and that there are enormous opportunities as well as threats for those not prepared to change;
• progressing on a new, more sustainable path would require a coherent lead from governments, from businesses and from individuals;
• a low carbon economy is achievable if governments put in place a coherent, long-term policy. Industry and business could then take appropriate steps to deliver. Its realisation would include putting an explicit  - high and rising, price on carbon emissions, connecting consumers to producers and encouraging ideas on social and environmental improvement. 

Mark concluded by saying that we were all part of the problem.  Technology would help, but mindset and behavioural change were also essential.  In short, we all need to become part of the solution. 

Mark was asked the following questions following his presentation:

Q1. How do you advise Africa and other countries not to make ‘western’ mistakes?

African problems will be solved primarily by Africans, so we need to ensure that we are supportive rather than unhelpful. A start would be reforming our policies which damage Africa (e.g. agricultural policies) and reducing our own waste. We might also offer our technologies at very low prices to enable them to develop low-carbon economies. Giving greater weight to local issues and needs, listening to people at the grass roots, rather than imposing our solutions via western agencies at the national level would also be helpful.

Q2. What contribution can carbon sequestration make to reduce carbon emissions?

This is currently a big unknown. A few pilot projects are underway and larger projects are being considered but the costs are high. If we are to increase our use of fossil fuels, we have to solve this problem soon or risk runaway climate change.

Q3. Does reduced carbon activities affect tourism in Scotland?

Yes. In the UK as a whole, we need to improve public transport; better train services will be part of the answer and they should be subsidised to help. In remote rural areas, cars and buses will be around for a long time so we need to focus on efficiency, both for individual vehicles (75mpg cars are possible now) and for car sharing schemes etc.

Q4. Is nuclear energy a viable option?

Not economically, in my view, if the whole life cycle is taken into account. Waste disposal remains unresolved and Uranium is a scarce material which is difficult to produce. However, there is a lot of vested interest in nuclear energy option and our current thinking assumes that we need to maintain the national electricity grid rather than move towards more local power generation.

Q5. Should we centralise everyday living?

We should look at the whole community and its various impacts on the environment and make decisions accordingly (see systems thinking references at the end of the presentation). 

The streaming audio file will allow you to sample key points from Mark Hope’s full presentation. His supporting slide presentation is also available here in Adobe Reader pdf format.