Difficult as it may seem to believe right now, the era of the text message may be drawing to a close.
Or, at least, that’s what BT boffins and survey company Ipsos MORI have concluded following extensive research with consumers. The imminent demise prediction comes after many consumers expressed a wish to have a converged communications tool that can make phone calls, send email and instant messages and browse the web.
Instead of carrying around a number of different devices, punters want a multi-tasking handset that does everything. And if instant messaging with its ability to see who is online takes hold in the mobile phone world, the text message will soon be as dead as the telex machine in a few years.
This is just one of the findings in BT's 21st Century Life Index Report, a state of the digital nation report that compares today with the forecasts of the public 10 years ago.
Unsurprisingly given the growth of always-on broadband and two hour connection cut offs a dimming memory in the collective consciousness, the proportion of the population now spending more than five hours per week online has doubled in past decade from just 24 per cent in 1998 to 57 per cent in 2008.
Meanwhile, the dire warnings about text messaging come just after suggestions that another net stalwart, the auction site, appears to be losing its appeal with the public. For the last six months has seen the proportion of UK households saying they buy on eBay and other online auction sites drop by four per cent according to the latest data from Point Topic’s series of consumer broadband surveys.
The inference being made is that while auctioneers are being hit the hardest, other online retailers can’t afford to be complacent.
The percentage of people shopping online, while relatively high at 69 per cent in January 2008, is static over the last 18 months.
“It is easy to get carried along by the enthusiasm for a dynamic sales channel like the internet but it’s important to take note of the limits of what is achievable,” says Pamela Varley, Research Analyst at Point Topic.
“It appears that a ceiling has been reached under the current conditions and retailers will need to ensure their business models reflect this reality. Historically this hasn’t always been the case,” says Varley.
The amounts individuals spend have also peaked with increasing numbers claiming to spend nothing at all online from month to month.
One piece of good news for internet retailers is that the absolute number of online shoppers in the UK is growing but this is entirely due to increasing broadband take up. Retailers are holding online market share at best and many sectors are seeing a drop in the proportion of consumers willing to spend their money on the internet.
“Consumers, particularly women, need to see and touch some items before they buy them, cosmetics, food and clothes top the list and a growing proportion of users are using the internet to check prices and availability before visiting a physical store. The internet is increasingly regarded as a part of the buying process rather than the start and end of it,” says Varley.
Online retailers will continue to pick up new customers but the rate will slow in the coming quarters. External economic factors will play a significant role but everyone needs to be aware of slowing broadband growth, says Point Topic.
